{
 "generated": "2026-10-08",
 "m0": 2.1,
 "simDist": 6,
 "chi": {
  "lo": 0.01264792899408284,
  "mid": 0.013905325443786982,
  "hi": 0.014600591715976332
 },
 "effects": {
  "spawn_throttle": {
   "mid": -0.060737649001867025,
   "lo": -0.0908387078556413,
   "hi": -0.03063659014809275,
   "cycles": [
    -0.0454545454545455,
    -0.07833333333333338,
    -0.043333333333333356,
    -0.07582938388625589
   ]
  },
  "dit_cache": {
   "mid": -0.08812110801275609,
   "lo": -0.11813216623561432,
   "hi": -0.058110049789897866,
   "cycles": [
    -0.06105263157894734,
    -0.10020449897750508,
    -0.10179640718562877,
    -0.0894308943089432
   ]
  }
 },
 "jitter": {
  "idle": 0.15651568015518805,
  "loaded": 0.454021024962144
 },
 "gc": {
  "rate_per_s": 0.06543681085665819,
  "mu": 2.0794415416798357,
  "sigma": 1.4,
  "check": {
   "mean_ms": 21.449358687890992,
   "median_max_ms": 1236.1291940228944,
   "observed_mean_ms": 21,
   "observed_max_ms": 1960
  }
 },
 "gc_stand": {
  "period": 63.085394638351254,
  "D": 840.9,
  "regularity": 0.25,
  "durSd": 0.07
 },
 "kappa": {
  "lo": 0.0006509541047348972,
  "mid": 0.0029119320188226395,
  "hi": 0.0035656596367375335
 },
 "prod": {
  "hotspots": 6,
  "sigmaChunks": 6,
  "lambda": {
   "lo": 0.8542205810546877,
   "mid": 0.9946624755859377,
   "hi": 1.1182037353515624
  },
  "fit": {
   "targets": {
    "n1": 20,
    "mean_ms": [
     30,
     34,
     38
    ],
    "n2": 47,
    "tps": 18.28
   },
   "achieved_tps47": 17.702290950744555,
   "achieved_mean_ms47": 55.78276108161244,
   "note": "2 точки → 2 параметра: проверкой это НЕ является"
  }
 },
 "validation": {
  "stand": {
   "holdout": [
    {
     "experiment": "botbench",
     "variant": "off",
     "kind": "hold-out",
     "calibrated_on": "bench+ditbench",
     "real": {
      "p50": 30.3,
      "avg": 44.81190476190476,
      "p95": 56.5,
      "p99": 839.2,
      "windows": 126
     },
     "sim": {
      "p50": 29.656869671246277,
      "avg": 46.836134500898126,
      "p95": 75.13796684100441,
      "p99": 883.9486294023908,
      "windows": 796
     },
     "similarity": {
      "per": {
       "p50": 0.978774576608788,
       "avg": 0.9548283040020609,
       "p95": 0.6701244806901874,
       "p99": 0.9466770383670272
      },
      "mean": 0.8876010999170159,
      "min": 0.6701244806901874
     }
    },
    {
     "experiment": "botbench",
     "variant": "on",
     "kind": "hold-out",
     "calibrated_on": "bench+ditbench",
     "real": {
      "p50": 28.7,
      "avg": 44.85748031496063,
      "p95": 55.7,
      "p99": 850.4,
      "windows": 127
     },
     "sim": {
      "p50": 29.656869671246277,
      "avg": 46.836134500898126,
      "p95": 75.13796684100441,
      "p99": 883.9486294023908,
      "windows": 796
     },
     "similarity": {
      "per": {
       "p50": 0.9666595933363666,
       "avg": 0.9558902066713367,
       "p95": 0.6510239346318778,
       "p99": 0.9605495891317135
      },
      "mean": 0.8835308309428236,
      "min": 0.6510239346318778
     }
    },
    {
     "experiment": "ditbench",
     "variant": "off",
     "kind": "hold-out",
     "calibrated_on": "bench+botbench",
     "real": {
      "p50": 24.6,
      "avg": 40.68515624999999,
      "p95": 55.95,
      "p99": 822.5,
      "windows": 128
     },
     "sim": {
      "p50": 24.394396696608474,
      "avg": 38.786697440643024,
      "p95": 49.96670877209381,
      "p99": 893.3079341009249,
      "windows": 798
     },
     "similarity": {
      "per": {
       "p50": 0.9916421421385558,
       "avg": 0.953337802177988,
       "p95": 0.8930600316728116,
       "p99": 0.913911326321064
      },
      "mean": 0.9379878255776049,
      "min": 0.8930600316728116
     }
    },
    {
     "experiment": "ditbench",
     "variant": "on",
     "kind": "hold-out",
     "calibrated_on": "bench+botbench",
     "real": {
      "p50": 22.3,
      "avg": 40.976724137931036,
      "p95": 53.35,
      "p99": 813.15,
      "windows": 116
     },
     "sim": {
      "p50": 24.394396696608474,
      "avg": 38.786697440643024,
      "p95": 49.96670877209381,
      "p99": 893.3079341009249,
      "windows": 798
     },
     "similarity": {
      "per": {
       "p50": 0.9060808656229384,
       "avg": 0.9465543734068101,
       "p95": 0.9365831072557415,
       "p99": 0.9014229427523521
      },
      "mean": 0.9226603222594605,
      "min": 0.9014229427523521
     }
    }
   ],
   "insample": [
    {
     "experiment": "bench",
     "variant": "baseline",
     "kind": "in-sample",
     "calibrated_on": "bench+botbench+ditbench",
     "real": {
      "p50": 13.1,
      "avg": 14.166666666666666,
      "p95": 16.95,
      "p99": 21.9,
      "windows": 84
     },
     "sim": {
      "p50": 14.035466593172426,
      "avg": 14.171193222653388,
      "p95": 18.169781830297094,
      "p99": 20.52272175422754,
      "windows": 800
     },
     "similarity": {
      "per": {
       "p50": 0.9285903363990514,
       "avg": 0.9996804784009373,
       "p95": 0.928036470188962,
       "p99": 0.9371105823848193
      },
      "mean": 0.9483544668434425,
      "min": 0.928036470188962
     }
    },
    {
     "experiment": "bench",
     "variant": "create2",
     "kind": "in-sample",
     "calibrated_on": "bench+botbench+ditbench",
     "real": {
      "p50": 13.5,
      "avg": 14.872619047619045,
      "p95": 17.4,
      "p99": 21.450000000000003,
      "windows": 84
     },
     "sim": {
      "p50": 14.035466593172426,
      "avg": 14.171193222653388,
      "p95": 18.169781830297094,
      "p99": 20.52272175422754,
      "windows": 800
     },
     "similarity": {
      "per": {
       "p50": 0.9603358079131536,
       "avg": 0.9528377737155885,
       "p95": 0.9557596649254543,
       "p99": 0.9567702449523328
      },
      "mean": 0.9564258728766323,
      "min": 0.9528377737155885
     }
    },
    {
     "experiment": "bench",
     "variant": "create3",
     "kind": "in-sample",
     "calibrated_on": "bench+botbench+ditbench",
     "real": {
      "p50": 12.75,
      "avg": 13.33214285714286,
      "p95": 16.45,
      "p99": 19.85,
      "windows": 84
     },
     "sim": {
      "p50": 14.035466593172426,
      "avg": 14.171193222653388,
      "p95": 18.169781830297094,
      "p99": 20.52272175422754,
      "windows": 800
     },
     "similarity": {
      "per": {
       "p50": 0.8991790907315744,
       "avg": 0.9370656034441609,
       "p95": 0.895453992079204,
       "p99": 0.9661097353033986
      },
      "mean": 0.9244521053895844,
      "min": 0.895453992079204
     }
    },
    {
     "experiment": "botbench",
     "variant": "off",
     "kind": "in-sample",
     "calibrated_on": "bench+botbench+ditbench",
     "real": {
      "p50": 30.3,
      "avg": 44.81190476190476,
      "p95": 56.5,
      "p99": 839.2,
      "windows": 126
     },
     "sim": {
      "p50": 30.789403393070906,
      "avg": 46.94819498386974,
      "p95": 67.79337101320084,
      "p99": 897.9482312972023,
      "windows": 796
     },
     "similarity": {
      "per": {
       "p50": 0.9838480728359438,
       "avg": 0.9523276184461351,
       "p95": 0.8001173271999851,
       "p99": 0.9299949579394635
      },
      "mean": 0.9165719941053818,
      "min": 0.8001173271999851
     }
    },
    {
     "experiment": "botbench",
     "variant": "on",
     "kind": "in-sample",
     "calibrated_on": "bench+botbench+ditbench",
     "real": {
      "p50": 28.7,
      "avg": 44.85748031496063,
      "p95": 55.7,
      "p99": 850.4,
      "windows": 127
     },
     "sim": {
      "p50": 29.076601691218258,
      "avg": 45.235393282017185,
      "p95": 66.0805693113482,
      "p99": 896.2354295953496,
      "windows": 796
     },
     "similarity": {
      "per": {
       "p50": 0.9868779898530223,
       "avg": 0.9915752520114128,
       "p95": 0.8136343032073933,
       "p99": 0.9461013292622887
      },
      "mean": 0.9345472185835293,
      "min": 0.8136343032073933
     }
    },
    {
     "experiment": "ditbench",
     "variant": "off",
     "kind": "in-sample",
     "calibrated_on": "bench+botbench+ditbench",
     "real": {
      "p50": 24.6,
      "avg": 40.68515624999999,
      "p95": 55.95,
      "p99": 822.5,
      "windows": 128
     },
     "sim": {
      "p50": 24.519856852632067,
      "avg": 39.9180571949348,
      "p95": 55.33163826562091,
      "p99": 883.5944145483502,
      "windows": 796
     },
     "similarity": {
      "per": {
       "p50": 0.9967421484809783,
       "avg": 0.981145480913197,
       "p95": 0.9889479582774068,
       "p99": 0.9257210765369602
      },
      "mean": 0.9731391660521356,
      "min": 0.9257210765369602
     }
    },
    {
     "experiment": "ditbench",
     "variant": "on",
     "kind": "in-sample",
     "calibrated_on": "bench+botbench+ditbench",
     "real": {
      "p50": 22.3,
      "avg": 40.976724137931036,
      "p95": 53.35,
      "p99": 813.15,
      "windows": 116
     },
     "sim": {
      "p50": 22.574789134143458,
      "avg": 37.9729894764462,
      "p95": 53.386570547132294,
      "p99": 881.6493468298615,
      "windows": 796
     },
     "similarity": {
      "per": {
       "p50": 0.987677617302984,
       "avg": 0.9266965643379882,
       "p95": 0.9993145164548773,
       "p99": 0.9157605031914634
      },
      "mean": 0.9573623003218281,
      "min": 0.9157605031914634
     }
    }
   ],
   "metric": "1 − |sim − real|/real по P50, среднему, P95, P99 окон tick query; усреднено по 4 статистикам"
  },
  "prod_hourly": {
   "rows": [
    {
     "players": 34,
     "tps_obs": 19.84,
     "tps_sim": 19.913028764805375,
     "tps_p10": 17.78379018612521,
     "tps_p90": 19.964534686971177,
     "mean_ms": 46.53295943944036
    },
    {
     "players": 44,
     "tps_obs": 19.91,
     "tps_sim": 19.207529610829102,
     "tps_p10": 16.745414551607436,
     "tps_p90": 19.910270727580336,
     "mean_ms": 51.72656329994058
    },
    {
     "players": 47,
     "tps_obs": 18.28,
     "tps_sim": 17.34483925549914,
     "tps_p10": 16.611641285956004,
     "tps_p90": 19.034991539763116,
     "mean_ms": 57.568190894801575
    },
    {
     "players": 34,
     "tps_obs": 19.78,
     "tps_sim": 19.913028764805375,
     "tps_p10": 17.78379018612521,
     "tps_p90": 19.964534686971177,
     "mean_ms": 46.53295943944036
    },
    {
     "players": 27,
     "tps_obs": 19.9,
     "tps_sim": 19.95972927241958,
     "tps_p10": 19.599712351945843,
     "tps_p90": 19.983722504230087,
     "mean_ms": 41.63004671483638
    },
    {
     "players": 25,
     "tps_obs": 19.92,
     "tps_sim": 19.969035532994873,
     "tps_p10": 19.951979695431415,
     "tps_p90": 19.9821319796954,
     "mean_ms": 40.51987114633103
    },
    {
     "players": 20,
     "tps_obs": 20,
     "tps_sim": 19.98604060913703,
     "tps_p10": 19.96570219966154,
     "tps_p90": 19.993214890016905,
     "mean_ms": 32.31037957349176
    },
    {
     "players": 14,
     "tps_obs": 19.99,
     "tps_sim": 19.994670050761414,
     "tps_p10": 19.986463620981358,
     "tps_p90": 19.99609137055837,
     "mean_ms": 26.51008634504165
    },
    {
     "players": 6,
     "tps_obs": 20,
     "tps_sim": 19.999746192893397,
     "tps_p10": 19.99917089678511,
     "tps_p90": 19.999983079526228,
     "mean_ms": 14.665258162942333
    },
    {
     "players": 3,
     "tps_obs": 20,
     "tps_sim": 19.999746192893397,
     "tps_p10": 19.9994923857868,
     "tps_p90": 20,
     "mean_ms": 9.886997866855227
    },
    {
     "players": 3,
     "tps_obs": 20,
     "tps_sim": 19.999746192893397,
     "tps_p10": 19.9994923857868,
     "tps_p90": 20,
     "mean_ms": 9.886997866855227
    },
    {
     "players": 1,
     "tps_obs": 20,
     "tps_sim": 19.999915397631135,
     "tps_p10": 19.999678510998304,
     "tps_p90": 20,
     "mean_ms": 4.662830018215201
    },
    {
     "players": 1,
     "tps_obs": 20,
     "tps_sim": 19.999915397631135,
     "tps_p10": 19.999678510998304,
     "tps_p90": 20,
     "mean_ms": 4.662830018215201
    },
    {
     "players": 1,
     "tps_obs": 19.96,
     "tps_sim": 19.999915397631135,
     "tps_p10": 19.999678510998304,
     "tps_p90": 20,
     "mean_ms": 4.662830018215201
    }
   ],
   "rmse_all": 0.3160924716029112,
   "rmse_informative": 0.48252671565966626,
   "note": "Только часы ≥ 40 игроков различают модели; строка 47 использована в калибровке."
  }
 }
}